With July finally in our midst, many parents are already thinking about back-to-school shopping. And with increased prices across the board thinning out consumers’ wallets, early shopping seems to be the top choice for this year.
Consumers are shopping so early, in fact, that the National Retail Federation (NRF) found that about one-third of back-to-school shoppers had already started browsing and buying by early June, the highest since NRF first started asking the question in 2018.
Coresight Research data found a similar pattern, with their consumer survey results suggesting that 61.8% of respondents will start their BTS shopping before August, similar to last year’s percentage. Their report, “US Back to School 2026, Part 1: Early Shopping, Inflation Worries and Strategic Choices Shape BTS 2026,” found that back-to-school 2026 is shaping up as a value-led growth season, with consumers shopping earlier, buying more selectively and using digital tools—including AI, to stretch every dollar.
Back-to-School Shoppers Plan to Spend More in 2026
Coresight Research’s report discovered that in both dollar and unit terms, over 90% of consumers plan to spend the same or more this back-to-school season than they did last year. Yet, the gap between those planning to spend more in dollars and those planning to buy more in units suggests that consumers expect higher prices to absorb part of their budgets rather than translate directly into larger baskets.
Higher-income, urban consumers are most likely to spend more than last year, according to the report. However, the average expected spend per child is set to be $340 this season, down from $378 in 2025, signaling selective budgeting.
As far as the categories go for which consumers are planning to purchase their back-to-school products, the report projects that for 2026:
- School supplies spending will be up 4.8%
- Apparel, footwear and accessories, which has recently been a clear priority category for consumers spending tax refunds, will be up 6.5%
- Electronics, including computing, which has benefitted from a renewal cycle in laptops, will be up 5.1%
The Impacts of Inflation
Coresight Research’s latest monthly survey on inflation (conducted on June 8, 2026) found that 73.5% of US consumers have recently noticed price rises in retail.
With inflation very much on the minds of consumers, half of respondents in the back-to-school survey indicated that higher gas prices will affect how they shop for items this year and three in five respondents indicated that higher prices overall (general inflation) will limit how much they buy/spend for back-to-school this year.
Rising prices are making shoppers adapt and think more strategically on how and what they buy. Among those who expect gas prices to impact how they shop, according to the report, around half of respondents plan to make fewer shopping trips or shop more at one-stop retailers such as Walmart, Target or Amazon. Among those who expect inflation to limit their spending, around three in five (58.5%) will seek promotions and bulk discounts—the most widespread response. Shopping earlier and trading down (switching to lower-priced alternatives or private label) are also key strategies, cited by at least two in five respondents.
Back-to-School Shoppers Use AI to Find Deals
Coresight Research’s report found that more than half (56.3%) of back-to-school shoppers have already used or may plan to use AI tools like ChatGPT or AI chatbots on retailer websites to help with shopping this year. This presents an opportunity for retailers and brands to use or implement AI-related technology to reach more consumers and turn browsing into sales.
More than half of those who are AI shoppers are using or plan to use AI tools or chatbots to compare prices across retailers and to find deals.
Retailers should treat this back-to-school shopping season as a conversion challenge to capture sales. Even though customers are going to be more picky about where and how they spend their money, this presents a great opportunity to show them how you can meet their needs without wringing their wallets dry.
