Retail sales are forecast to grow between 4.3%–4.9% this holiday season, with total expected spend topping $1.7 trillion, according to ICSC’s 2026 holiday shopping forecast. Findings from ICSC’s annual Holiday Intentions Survey reinforce this forecast, as consumers prioritize holiday spending and experiences above competing financial priorities.
The survey points to continued demand heading into the critical year-end shopping period. Eighty-eight percent of U.S. adults—approximately 237 million people—plan to purchase holiday gifts and other holiday-related items this season, according to the survey, with 78% planning to spend the same or more than last year. The top 10% of shoppers anticipate spending five times more than the average consumer, underscoring the outsized influence a small group of high-spending shoppers can have on holiday sales.
“Consumers have made it clear they are willing to make sacrifices for the things that matter to them this holiday season, but they are making careful decisions about when and where they spend to make that money go further,” said Tom McGee, President and CEO of ICSC, in a news release. “Shoppers remain resilient, but they’re more discerning and value-conscious; competitive prices, convenient shopping options, and experiences that bring people together are non-negotiable for retailers to attract shoppers and give them reasons to return throughout the season.”
Consumers Face Financial Pressures
In ICSC’s survey, 83% of consumers can keep up with their essential expenses but many acknowledge increased financial pressure. Nearly half (49%) are concerned about being able to afford holiday gifts this year and 50% say their personal or household debt will affect their holiday spending. Consumers that say concerns about the job market will affect how much they plan to spend this holiday season increased from 43% to 49% year-over-year.
As a result, many shoppers plan to make financial tradeoffs to cover their purchases. Nearly half (49%) expect to borrow money to cover purchases they cannot immediately pay for in full, according to the survey, while 47% anticipate holiday expenses will delay or reduce debt repayment, savings or retirement contributions. Nearly one in four (23%) expect to still be paying for their 2026 holiday purchases in 2027.
Where Consumers Plan to Do Their Holiday Spending
While preserving holiday traditions remains a compelling reason for consumers to continue spending, this does not guarantee loyalty to familiar retailers or brands. Fifty-eight percent expect to try a new brand, according to the survey, and 52% plan to shop with a retailer they have not used before. Twenty-seven percent plan more research or comparison shopping because of higher prices or budget concerns, while 25% expect to switch to lower-priced products or brands. Even among shoppers planning to spend more, more than four in 10 expect to buy fewer items, choose cheaper alternatives, or buy secondhand.
Value can get shoppers through the door, while opportunities to spend time together give stores a role beyond completing a purchase. Sixty-eight percent say discounts, promotions and exclusive offers will encourage additional store trips, according to the survey, and 93% expect to visit a physical store to purchase an item or pick up an online order, including 97% of Gen Z.
For younger shoppers, a store visit also offers a way to enjoy the season with others. Thirty-four percent of store shoppers describe their trips as social outings or a combination of shopping, dining and entertainment. This increases to 48% among Gen Z, according to the survey. Half of Gen Z holiday shoppers also plan to spend more on experiences than last year, highlighting the opportunity for shopping centers to bring retail, dining and seasonal activities together.
AI Aiding Holiday Purchases
The search for value is also shaping how shoppers plan to use AI. Sixty-one percent of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools or assistants—up from 47% in 2025, according to the survey. Comparing prices is the most common planned use (29%), followed by researching products and features (19%), checking availability (18%) and finding deals (16%). Many shoppers plan to use AI as a starting point rather than a purchasing tool, with 86% intending to conduct additional research before making a purchase.
“Consumers are placing a premium on experiences this holiday season, viewing stores as more than places for transactions,” said McGee in the news release. “The human experience remains a core part of holiday shopping, and retailers that transform a simple errand into an outing or a memory are most likely to capture consumer dollars this season and beyond.”
