The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index found that small business optimism increased in May.
The index increased by three points in May to 98.8, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. Expected business conditions and sales expectations contributed the most to the rise in the index. However, the Uncertainty Index rose two points from April to 94. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. The last time taxes were ranked as the top single most important problem was in December 2020.
“Although optimism recovered slightly in May, uncertainty is still high among small business owners,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a news release. “While the economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty are resolved, owners reported more positive expectations on business conditions and sales growth.”
“Small business sentiment in Minnesota is on the rise, with many owners anticipating improved sales volumes in the coming months,” added NFIB Minnesota state director Jon Boesche. “Despite this optimism, the burden of taxes continues to weigh heavily on their operations. This makes it even more important for Congress to make the Small Business Deduction permanent.”
Small Business Labor Problems
As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 34% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in May, unchanged from April. Of the 55% of owners hiring or trying to hire in May, 86% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down one point from April.
Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose one point in May to 9%.
Seasonally adjusted, a net 26% reported raising compensation, down seven points from April. A seasonally adjusted net 20% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up three points from April.
Small Business Sales Less Than Desirable
In May, the percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem remained at 9% for the fifth consecutive month. A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down five points from April.
The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains was unchanged from April at a net negative 5%, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, 14% reported increases in stocks and 16% reported reductions. A net 1% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in May, up seven points from April and the highest reading since August 2022.
Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% plan price hikes in May, up three points from April. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices was unchanged from April at a net 25%, seasonally adjusted. Unadjusted, 10% of owners reported lower average selling prices and 38% reported higher average prices.
The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 26% (seasonally adjusted) in May, five points worse than in April. Among owners reporting lower profits, 36% blamed weaker sales, 13% cited the rise in the cost of materials, 11% cited usual seasonal change, and 8% cited labor costs. For owners reporting higher profits, 52% credited sales volumes, 27% cited usual seasonal change, and 8% cited higher selling prices.
Common Small Business Problems
Five percent of owners reported that financing and interest rates were their top business problem in May, up two points from April. Twenty-five percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down one point from April. A net 4% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, down one point from April. A net 7% reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, up one point from April.
Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. The last time taxes were ranked as the top single most important problem was in December 2020, when it tied for first with labor quality. The percent of small business owners reporting government regulations and red tape as their single most important problem remained at 9%. Four percent reported competition from large businesses as their single most important problem, down three points from April.
