The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October found that small business optimism is taking a small step back as uncertainty eased up a bit last month.
The index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remained above its 52-year average of 98, according to the report. The Uncertainty Index fell 12 points from September to 88, the lowest reading of this year.
“Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a news release. “Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”
“The labor crisis continues to hinder small businesses nationwide, especially in Minnesota,” added NFIB Minnesota state director Jon Boesche. “Burdensome red tape is preventing small businesses from expanding, and workforce shortages are slowing production. These impacts will be intensified by Minnesota’s Paid Family & Medical Leave mandate, which goes into effect on January 1st. Our lawmakers must prioritize tax relief and regulation reform if we want to see Minnesota grow.”
Small Business Headwinds
As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 32% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in October, unchanged for the second consecutive month. Before August, the last time unfilled job openings hit 32% was in December 2020. Of the 56% of owners hiring or trying to hire in October, 88% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 15% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 1 point from September. This marks the first decline since hiring plans started to increase in May 2025.
Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners fell by 3 points from September to 8%, according to the report. Seasonally adjusted, a net 26% reported raising compensation, down 5 points from September. A seasonally adjusted net 19% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, unchanged from September.
Small Business Expansions
Fifty-five percent of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down 1 point from September, according to the report. Of those making expenditures, 36% reported spending on new equipment, 22% acquired vehicles and 14% improved or expanded facilities. Thirteen percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture and 3% acquired new buildings or land for expansion. Twenty-three percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, up 2 points from September.
A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, according to the report, down 6 points from September. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 2 points from September to a net 6% (seasonally adjusted).
Stocks are “Too Low”
The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell 3 points to a net negative 6%, according to the report, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, 10% reported increases in stocks, and 15% reported reductions. A net negative 4% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in October, up 3 points from September’s largest monthly decline in the survey’s history. A net negative 2% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months, down 3 points from September.
In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month, according to the report. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Despite the decline, price increases remain above the monthly average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure.
Unadjusted, 31% reported higher average prices (down 2 points) and 12% reported lower average selling prices (up 2 points), according to the report. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down 1 point from September).
Small Businesses Experiencing Lower Profits
The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 9 points from September to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted), according to the report. This component contributed the greatest to the decline in the Optimism Index. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 16% cited the rise in the cost of materials, 9% cited price change for their product(s) or service(s) and 9% cited labor costs. Among owners reporting higher profits, 53% cited sales volume, 17% cited usual seasonal change and 11% cited higher selling prices.
A net 5% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, according to the report, down 2 points from September’s highest reading of this year. In October, a net 1% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 6 points from September. The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.7% in October, down 0.1 points from September. Twenty-three percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, down 3 points from September.
Business Conditions Suffering
In October, owners’ overall assessment of their business’ health declined from the previous month as more owners reported it as “fair” than “good,” according to the report. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 12% reported it as excellent (up 1 point), and 51% reported it as good (down 6 points). Thirty-three percent reported the health of their business as fair (up 6 points), and 4% reported it as poor (unchanged).
The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 3 points from September to a net 20% (seasonally adjusted), according to the report, the lowest level since April but remaining above the historical average of net 4%.
In October, 13% (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, according to the report, up 2 points from September. Compared to readings during economic expansions, this is a relatively weak reading.
Small Business Problems
Twenty-seven percent of small business owners reported labor quality as their single most important problem, according to the report, up 9 points from September and ranking as the top problem. The percent of small business owners reporting labor costs as their single most important problem fell 3 points to 8%.
Twelve percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, according to the report, down 2 points from September.
The percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem remained at 10%, according to the report.
In October, 8% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, according to the report, unchanged from September. Two percent reported that financing and interest rates was their top business problem in October, down 2 points from September.
Five percent reported competition from large businesses as their single most important problem, according to the report, unchanged from September.
